Bestprofit Futures - Hasil Survey Gallup Palsu Pabowo
Selasa (24/6/2014) malam, ruang-ruang di media sosial riuh. Sebuah link
yang mengarah pada situs berita CNN mengabarkan soal survei yang
memenangkan pasangan Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa atas pasangan Joko
Widodo-Jusuf Kalla.
Judul tulisannya, "Indonesia Predict Prabowo Will Be Next Indonesian
President". Tulisan itu menyebut, survei dilakukan oleh Gallup Indonesia.
Hasilnya, 52 persen masyarakat Indonesia memperkirakan Prabowo akan menang,
sementara yang memilih Jokowi 41 persen. Disebutkan, survei Gallup Indonesia
dilakukan pada 10-21 Juni 2014.
Bestprofit Futures - Gallup adalah lembaga survei kredibel di AS. Gallup selalu menjadi rujukan
dalam setiap pemilihan umum di negeri itu. Survei Gallup ini berbeda dengan
mayoritas hasil survei sejumlah lembaga survei di Indonesia yang diterbitkan
pada bulan Juni.
Survei Lingkaran Survei Indonesia yang dipublikasikan pada 15 Juni, misalnya, mendapatkan bahwa Prabowo-Hatta meraih dukungan 38,7 persen, sementara Jokowi-JK mendapatkan 45 persen, serta suara mengambang 14,4 persen.
Bestprofit Futures - Hasil survei lain yang dilakukan Populi Center dipublikasikan pada 4 Juni menunjukkan, Prabowo-Hatta mengumpulkan 36,9 persen, sedangkan Jokowi-JK sebesar 47,5 persen, dan suara mengambang 14,4 persen.
Survei Litbang Harian Kompas yang dipublikasikan pada 21 Juni juga mendapatkan hasil yang tak jauh berbeda. Prabowo-Hata meraih dukungan 35,3 persen suara, Jokowi-Jk 42,3 persen, dan suara mengambang 22,4 persen. Wakil Ketua Umum Parta Gerindra Fadli Zon menuding itu merupakan hasil survei bayaran.
Bestprofit Futures - Wakil Pemimpin Redaksi Harian Kompas Budiman Tanuredjo membantah survei yang dilakukan Litbang Kompas adalah survei bayaran. Menurut Budiman, tudingan itu melecehkan kredibilitas dan kerja-kerja intelektual tim Litbang Kompas.
Survei Lingkaran Survei Indonesia yang dipublikasikan pada 15 Juni, misalnya, mendapatkan bahwa Prabowo-Hatta meraih dukungan 38,7 persen, sementara Jokowi-JK mendapatkan 45 persen, serta suara mengambang 14,4 persen.
Bestprofit Futures - Hasil survei lain yang dilakukan Populi Center dipublikasikan pada 4 Juni menunjukkan, Prabowo-Hatta mengumpulkan 36,9 persen, sedangkan Jokowi-JK sebesar 47,5 persen, dan suara mengambang 14,4 persen.
Survei Litbang Harian Kompas yang dipublikasikan pada 21 Juni juga mendapatkan hasil yang tak jauh berbeda. Prabowo-Hata meraih dukungan 35,3 persen suara, Jokowi-Jk 42,3 persen, dan suara mengambang 22,4 persen. Wakil Ketua Umum Parta Gerindra Fadli Zon menuding itu merupakan hasil survei bayaran.
Bestprofit Futures - Wakil Pemimpin Redaksi Harian Kompas Budiman Tanuredjo membantah survei yang dilakukan Litbang Kompas adalah survei bayaran. Menurut Budiman, tudingan itu melecehkan kredibilitas dan kerja-kerja intelektual tim Litbang Kompas.
Sementara itu Juru Bicara Tim Pemenangan Prabowo Subianto-Hatta Rajasa, Nurul Arifin, menilai bahwa survei palsu atas nama Gallup di situs CNN merupakan salah cara memengaruhi preferensi pemilih. Meski demikian, ia tidak tahu siapa yang membuat artikel tentang survei itu.
Bestprofit Futures -"Soal survei Gallup bisa saja itu merupakan satu cara memengaruhi pemilih. Cara yang sama dilakukan juga oleh pihak lain. Ini pertempuran, Bung! Pintar-pintar menyusun strategi saja," kata Nurul melalui pesan elektronik, Rabu (24/6/2014) siang.
Survei palsu
Tulisan yang diunggah di laman CNN itu sepertinya menggembirakan bagi para pendukung Prabowo. Pius Lustrilanang mewartakan hasil survei itu di laman Facebook. "Good news," tulis dia di dinding status Facebook-nya.
Pius adalah mantan aktivis 98 yang pernah diculik oleh Tim Mawar bentukan Prabowo. Ia "berdamai" dengan Prabowo dan menjadi politisi Partai Gerindra.
Salah satu stasiun televisi bahkan mengabarkan hasil survei. Kabar ini diulang pada running text yang muncul di layar. Namun, pemberitaan di running text itu kemudian dinyatakan ditarik.
Warga media sosial mendapati ternyata survei itu adalah survei palsu. Tulisan di laman CNN itu bahkan tulisan palsu. Tulisan itu adalah gubahan atas artikel Lydia Saad yang pernah diterbitkan Gallup pada 16 Juni 2008. Si penggubah tulisan kurang jeli. Pada salah satu bagian masih tertera kata Americans, first black, dan Obama yang berasal dari artikel asli.
Sesungguhnya, tulisan survei Gallup palsu itu bukanlah artikel atau laporan yang diterbitkan CNN, melainkan tulisan yang ditulis oleh pembaca. Tulisan itu diunggah di laman iReport. Laman ini adalah laman yang disediakan CNN bagi audiensnya yang ingin berkontribusi menyampaikan informasi.
iReport mirip dengan Kompasiana di Indonesia. Kompasiana adalah sosial blog yang dikelola oleh kompas.com. Tulisan-tulisan yang diunggah di Kompasiana di-posting oleh pembaca.
Tak lama setelah tulisan itu beredar, CNN kemudian mencabutnya. Kalau kita mengunjungi link artikel itu, kita akan menemukan pengumuman ini, "This iReport has been removed because it was flagged by the community and found to be in violation of the iReport Community Guidelines and Terms of Use."
Berikut adalah isi artikel Lydia Saad yang pernah di
terbitkan Gallup pada 16 Juni 2008 :
Berikut adalah isi hasil survei Prabowo yang ditayangkan di CNN oleh Gallup Indonesia :
Indonesians Predict Prabowo Will Be Next Indonesia President
A 52% majority thinks Prabowo Will Win, Versus 41% Choosing Joko Widodo
JAKARTA , – Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo are now about tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, nevertheless, in a June 10-21 Gallup Indonesia Poll, Prabowo leads Joko Widodo 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in 9 July.
Prabowo coalitions party are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee will prevail in June -- 76% say Habiburokman will win -- than Joko Widodo Coalitions Party are about Joko Widodo chances (67%). What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Prabowo is that, by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Prabowo coalitions party in believing Obama is likely to win.
Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking of the presidential election over the same period as the June 10-21 Gallup Poll shows Prabowo beating Joko Widodo among registered voters in the Sumatera ,Java,,Kalimantan ,Lombok ,Bali ,NTT ,Papua and Mollucas Region t, while he roughly ties Joko Widodo in Sumatera Region and trails Joko Widodo by a substantial margin in the Java . Nevertheless, roughly half of voters in all four regions believe Prabowo is the more likely of the two to win.
Similarly, perceptions of Prabowo's electability by age don't exactly line up with his presidential support patterns across the same groups. Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking spanning June 10-22 shows adults aged 18 to 34 to be his strongest support group, giving him a 24-point lead over Joko Widodo, compared with a virtual tie between Prabowo and Joko Widodo among those aged 35 to 54 and a six-point lead for Joko Widodo among those 55 and older.
While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing Prabowo and Joko Widodo as the likely winner: 48% predict an Prabowo win vs. 45% for Joko Widodo By contrast, the majority of Indonesian 55 and older say Prabowo will win.
Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking shows women backing Prabowo over Joko Widodo , 50% to 38%, while men prefer Joko Widodo to OPrabowo , 48% to 42%. Nevertheless, both genders are more likely to believe Prabowo rather than Joko Widodo will win the election.
Bottom Line
They say perception becomes reality. At this early stage of the general election campaign, perceptions of who can win are working in Prabowo,s favor, even among older generations of Indonesians who are more likely to back Joko Widodo for the presidency.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1220 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 10-21, 2014 . For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
A 52% majority thinks Prabowo Will Win, Versus 41% Choosing Joko Widodo
JAKARTA , – Prabowo Subianto and Joko Widodo are now about tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, nevertheless, in a June 10-21 Gallup Indonesia Poll, Prabowo leads Joko Widodo 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in 9 July.
Prabowo coalitions party are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee will prevail in June -- 76% say Habiburokman will win -- than Joko Widodo Coalitions Party are about Joko Widodo chances (67%). What tips the balance of national opinion more strongly in favor of Prabowo is that, by a nine-percentage point margin, independents join Prabowo coalitions party in believing Obama is likely to win.
Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking of the presidential election over the same period as the June 10-21 Gallup Poll shows Prabowo beating Joko Widodo among registered voters in the Sumatera ,Java,,Kalimantan ,Lombok ,Bali ,NTT ,Papua and Mollucas Region t, while he roughly ties Joko Widodo in Sumatera Region and trails Joko Widodo by a substantial margin in the Java . Nevertheless, roughly half of voters in all four regions believe Prabowo is the more likely of the two to win.
Similarly, perceptions of Prabowo's electability by age don't exactly line up with his presidential support patterns across the same groups. Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking spanning June 10-22 shows adults aged 18 to 34 to be his strongest support group, giving him a 24-point lead over Joko Widodo, compared with a virtual tie between Prabowo and Joko Widodo among those aged 35 to 54 and a six-point lead for Joko Widodo among those 55 and older.
While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing Prabowo and Joko Widodo as the likely winner: 48% predict an Prabowo win vs. 45% for Joko Widodo By contrast, the majority of Indonesian 55 and older say Prabowo will win.
Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking shows women backing Prabowo over Joko Widodo , 50% to 38%, while men prefer Joko Widodo to OPrabowo , 48% to 42%. Nevertheless, both genders are more likely to believe Prabowo rather than Joko Widodo will win the election.
Bottom Line
They say perception becomes reality. At this early stage of the general election campaign, perceptions of who can win are working in Prabowo,s favor, even among older generations of Indonesians who are more likely to back Joko Widodo for the presidency.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1220 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted June 10-21, 2014 . For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Gallup Indonesia Poll Daily tracking results on the Prabowo- Joko Widodo race are based on telephone interviews with 2,536 registered voters interviewed June 10-15 and June 21, 2014.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls
Berikut adalah isi artikel Lydia Saad yang pernah di
terbitkan Gallup pada 16 Juni 2008 :
Americans Predict Obama Will Be Next U.S. President
A 52% majority thinks Obama Will Win, Versus 41% Choosing McCain
PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama and John McCain are
now about tied in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for
the general election, nevertheless, in a June 9-12 Gallup Poll, Obama
leads McCain 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in
November.
Democrats are slightly more confident that their presumptive nominee
will prevail in November -- 76% say Obama will win -- than Republicans
are about McCain's chances (67%). What tips the balance of national
opinion more strongly in favor of Obama is that, by a nine-percentage
point margin, independents join Democrats in believing Obama is likely
to win.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking of the presidential election over the same
period as the June 9-12 Gallup Poll shows Obama beating McCain among
registered voters in the East and West, while he roughly ties McCain in
the Midwest and trails McCain by a substantial margin in the South.
Nevertheless, roughly half of voters in all four regions believe Obama
is the more likely of the two to win.
Similarly, perceptions of Obama's electability by age don't exactly
line up with his presidential support patterns across the same groups.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking spanning June 9-12 shows adults aged 18 to 34
to be his strongest support group, giving him a 24-point lead over
McCain, compared with a virtual tie between Obama and McCain among those
aged 35 to 54 and a six-point lead for McCain among those 55 and older.
While one might expect younger Americans to be the most idealistic
about the chances of the first black nominee for either major party
winning the presidency, they are in fact the least likely to believe he
will win. Adults aged 18 to 34 are essentially divided between choosing
Obama and McCain as the likely winner: 48% predict an Obama win vs. 45%
for McCain. By contrast, the majority of Americans 55 and older say
Obama will win.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows women backing Obama over McCain, 50%
to 38%, while men prefer McCain to Obama, 48% to 42%. Nevertheless,
both genders are more likely to believe Obama rather than McCain will
win the election.
Bottom Line
They say perception becomes reality. At this early stage of the
general election campaign, perceptions of who can win are working in
Obama's favor, even among older generations of Americans and Southerners
who are more likely to back McCain for the presidency.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 822 national adults,
aged 18 and older, conducted June 9-12, 2008. For results based on the
total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that
the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Gallup Poll Daily tracking results on the Obama-McCain race are based
on telephone interviews with 2,536 registered voters interviewed June
9-10 and June 12, 2008.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for
respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for
respondents who are cell phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the
findings of public opinion polls.
To provide feedback or suggestions about how to improve Gallup.com, please e-mail feedback@gallup.co
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